Thaw

Turn cold leads into warm prospects.

Thaw keeps a temperature on every prospect you are warming. You reply in public, in your own voice; it never sends anything. When the evidence says someone is ready, Thaw opens the gate.

No password. Thaw emails you a one-time link.

Example ledger for one prospect: three public replies over eighteen days, then a reciprocal signal that opens the gate.
A. Ferreiramacro research · Substack, YouTube
coldready
  • Feb 26replied on "The term premium is back"
  • Mar 07replied on episode 84
  • Mar 16replied on "Why gold, why now"
  • Mar 16followed you back · gate opens

Gate: open. Ready to write.

3 touches · 18 days · 1 reciprocal signal

The method

Three replies. Fourteen days.

Temperature is not a status column you set. It is computed from an append-only ledger of touches, and it moves in both directions.

  1. 01

    Watch

    Each morning Thaw lays out what the people on your shortlist published overnight. You choose what deserves a real response.

  2. 02

    Reply

    You write it yourself, on their post, from your own account. Paste the permalink back; the ledger records the touch.

  3. 03

    Warm

    Three substantive replies spread over at least 14 days take a prospect from cold to ready. A reciprocal signal opens the gate at once: they reply, they follow back, they like what you wrote.

  4. 04

    Write, or stop

    Past the gate, you have earned the first direct message. Go quiet and the warmth decays. Six touches with nothing back, and Thaw tells you to let this one go.

  5. Thresholds come from published research on advance contact and repeated exposure: the Cochrane review on pre-notification and Bornstein's mere-exposure meta-analysis. Not from a growth team.

The refusal

No send button. On purpose.

The rest of this category sells automation and ways around the bans that follow it. Thaw is built on the opposite bet: the reply rates everyone is chasing belong to the person who showed up in public, more than once, before asking for anything.

So there is no send button, and no code path that can contact anyone. Thaw cannot email, DM, schedule, or post as you, and it never will.

Works with AI assistants over MCP, for research and drafting.

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No password. Thaw emails you a one-time link.